Collier County, Florida
Economic Impact Report

This EIR quantifies the fiscal, economic, and structural delta between two defined states for Collier County's manufacturing feedstock system over a 30-year horizon.

State A is the continuation of current operations: all manufacturing feedstock disposed at the Collier County Landfill at White Lake Blvd, operated by Waste Management, Inc., under the county's existing rate schedule. Cost trajectory continues under annual rate escalation and capital reinvestment pressure. No alternative destination contracted. Landfill expansion capital decision pending.

State B is ACM deployment under the Carbotura Circular Supply Agreement: manufacturing feedstock diverted to the ACM facility at Phase Initial (200 TPD), Phase Medium (400 TPD), and Phase Expanded (800 TPD). Beneficiation Fee obligation begins at Phase Initial COD; Circular Royalty™ receipts begin at Month 13. All State B values sourced exclusively from the Proposal EIR Input Block.

Neither State A nor State B is re-diagnosed here. This document computes the delta only.

Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ are shown as independent transactions in separate rows. They are never netted. The Beneficiation Fee flows Community → Carbotura. The Circular Royalty™ flows Carbotura → Community. Both are separate financial effects of the CSA per the Separate Transaction Principle.

County fiscal effects — Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) obligations and Circular Royalty™ receipts (independent transactions) — and regional economic impact are distinct categories and must not be combined in any table, chart, or analytical statement in this document. Fiscal effects are contractual per-ton cash flows under the CSA. Regional economic impact (employment, GDP contribution) reflects broader economic activity from facility operation. Both categories appear separately throughout this EIR.

NAICS classification note: ACM is permitted only under manufacturing NAICS codes 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, and 331492 (US Sector 31–33). Solid waste codes (562212 / 562213 / 562219 / 562920) are expressly excluded. Both parties commit to the RPT pathway; the endpoint is categorical — manufacturing classification across all permitting, licensing, and regulatory contexts. Interim bridging authorities may apply during the transition.

No WTE/RRF in county; zero combusted tons (FDEP 2020). Out-of-county disposal premium: 135% above in-county cost (SCS Engineers, March 2025). No competitive disposal alternatives in county.

1. Annual rate schedule escalation. FY2026 residential MSW rose 4.5% from FY2025. Each annual rate resolution compounds the disposal cost basis under no-action. Planning basis escalation: 2.5%/yr conservative.
2. Capital reinvestment pressure. Southern expansion (~$73M) or eastern expansion (up to $400M) would introduce debt service per ton, further elevating the effective disposal cost. Deep injection well ($1.5M/yr savings) illustrates ongoing capital intensity.
3. No competitive alternatives market. Closest private landfill ~2.5 hours away, 135% premium. WM operations contract (since 1995) operates without competitive constraint.

• Collier County Landfill: 310.97 acres, Class I MSW. 40.75 acres closed, 9.1 acres temporarily capped, 132.15 acres active. Capacity through ~2059.
• No PFAS treatment at landfill. Leachate managed via Class I deep injection well (3,000 ft depth, operational February 2022).
• Immokalee Landfill: closed 2003, unlined. Active FDEP post-closure obligation through ~2033. Environmental liability acknowledged by BCC March 2025.
• Aquifer sensitivity: 96% of county drinking water from Floridan Aquifer. Leachate management is a structural operational cost regardless of expansion path.
• LFGTE facility on-site (6.5 MW, 120+ wells). Hydrogen from conversion is internal facility power — not an external product or revenue item.

Six confidence flags inherited (see Inherited Flags Block, above). Most consequential for this section: FWDC is MODELED; site candidate is PROVISIONAL; total system TPD is ESTIMATED. All three flags propagate to delta calculations in §4 and are labeled at the figure level throughout.

Module verification: 200 TPD ÷ 100 = 2 modules ✓ · 800 TPD ÷ 100 = 8 modules ✓ · Topology: Single-Site, truck-served.

Residual stream fraction (non-addressable at Phase Expanded): estimated ~35% of total system generation (~525 TPD) continues to White Lake Blvd landfill at current rates. This residual fraction carries continuing disposal cost obligations under State B at the existing rate schedule.

Geographic transition from current disposal infrastructure (State A) to ACM deployment at P1 candidate site (State B). State A facilities shown with steel/grey markers. State B ACM site shown as Emerald square. Click any panel item or map marker for details.

State A: Collier County Landfill (blue circle) · Immokalee (amber circle — active liability) · WWTPs (green circles). State B: P1 ACM site (emerald square). Source: Waste Study §6 facilities; Proposal §2.4 site analysis; places_search May 2026. Coordinates estimated where noted.

1. Gross cost displacement. The disposal cost not incurred for feedstock diverted to ACM. Measured as FWDC per ton × annual volume. Independent of royalty receipts. Source: State A §2.2.
2. Circular Royalty™ cash flow. Royalty payments received by Collier County from Carbotura beginning Month 13, rolling monthly. Measured as royalty per ton × annual volume. Independent of fee obligations. Source: Proposal EIR Input Block.
3. Residual obligation. Disposal cost for non-diverted volume continuing to State A disposition. Measured as remaining volume × State A FWDC. Reduces to zero only at full system addressable deployment.

Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ shown as separate rows. No Net column. Independent transactions per Separate Transaction Principle.

All figures ESTIMATED / DERIVED from locked Registry and Proposal EIR Input Block. No Net column. Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions.

FWDC projected at 2.5%/yr (conservative planning basis — FY25→FY26 actual was 4.5%). Independent of Beneficiation Fee. Separate from Circular Royalty™ receipts per Separate Transaction Principle.

Gross cost displacement is an independent financial effect of the CSA — it is not a royalty receipt and must not be combined with royalty figures in any table or chart.

Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.

Excess Over Fee/ton column is shown for analytical reference only — it is not a net column combining the transactions. Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ remain separate transactions per MR §4.8.

All State B metrics use "designed for" qualifying language per Carbotura standard. These are engineered performance targets at commercial scale, not guaranteed operational outcomes.

State A: PFAS compounds entering the landfill present ongoing risk given the county's Floridan Aquifer sensitivity (96% of drinking water from groundwater). No PFAS treatment at landfill; leachate disposal via deep injection well does not eliminate PFAS from the waste stream. State B: ACM designed for complete elemental dissociation of PFAS compounds at operating temperatures above 1,200°C via anoxic Microwave Catalytic Reforming. PFAS compounds are eliminated from the feedstock stream, removing the structural groundwater risk pathway for diverted volumes.

Both royalty and fee scale proportionally with volume. Royalty exceeds fee in Year 2+ regardless of volume scenario — structure-determined by the 120% multiplier exceeding 100%.

Even at 0 pp/yr escalation, Year 30 royalty ($239.55/ton) exceeds Year 30 fee ($204.64/ton) by $34.91/ton — the steady-state positive position holds under all multiplier escalator scenarios. +1 pp/yr is the base case per CSA v2026.7.

Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.

Slippage does not change the contractual royalty rate — it delays the start. The 30-year clock runs from actual Phase Initial COD, not from T0. Slippage reduces total royalty received over any fixed horizon.

Two binding constraints govern the Collier County decision window:

1. BCC expansion capital commitment. The March 2025 BCC workshop directed staff to return with detailed expansion analysis — both southern ($73M) and eastern ($400M) options. When the BCC votes to commit engineering capital, the CSA alternative for that capacity increment closes structurally. The timeline from workshop directive to BCC capital vote is typically 12–24 months for a project of this scope.
2. Term Sheet phase verification lead time. A Term Sheet phase verification requires authorisation, scoping, procurement, and execution — typically 3–6 months. This study must precede the BCC expansion vote to be decision-relevant. The authorisation of Term Sheet phase verification is therefore the near-term decision gate.

Gross displacement row = §4.4 · Beneficiation Fee row = §4.1 · Circular Royalty™ row = §4.5 · All MODELED / DERIVED · Phase Expanded 800 TPD · 264,000 TPY

Regional economic effects — not county fiscal receipts. Must not be combined with Beneficiation Fee or Circular Royalty™ figures.

Designed-performance basis. Not guaranteed operational outcomes.

• Carbon: designed reduction of 3,044–3,132 tonnes CO₂e/day (Phase Expanded) vs. continued landfill methane and ongoing LFGTE combustion.
• PFAS: complete elemental dissociation designed for diverted streams vs. persistent PFAS in leachate under State A.
• Water: 174,000+ gallons ultrapure water recovered/day designed vs. leachate disposal obligation.
• Material throughput: ~90% sold globally / ~100% converted (ACM) vs. ~28% recycling credit (LFGTE basis).

• Capital commitment: $0 community capital (State B) vs. $73M–$400M expansion (State A path).
• Operational risk: 100% Carbotura-borne (State B) vs. 100% community-borne (State A continuation).
• Post-closure liability (Immokalee): extinguished at CSA execution (if Exogenesis™ elected) vs. active liability through ~2033 (State A).
• Disposal concentration risk: structurally diversified to ACM manufacturing route (State B) vs. 100% single-operator, single-facility dependency (State A).